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The fertilizer maker delivered an earnings surprise of 5.8%, on average, over the trailing four quarters. It posted a negative earnings surprise of 0.9% in the last reported quarter. The company’s third-quarter performance will likely reflect the benefits of strong demand and higher prices for fertilizers.
The company’s shares have gained 15.1% in the past year compared with the industry’s 27.4% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
What do the Estimates Indicate?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nutrien’s third-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $9,016 million, calling for a rise of 49.7% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Phosphates segment is currently pegged at $629 million, calling for a year-over-year rise of 56.9%.
The consensus mark for net sales in the Potash segment is currently pegged at $3,207 million, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 170%.
The consensus mark for net sales in the Nitrogen segment is currently pegged at $2,191 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 125.2%.
A Few Factors to Watch
The company is likely to have benefited from solid demand and higher prices for fertilizers in the third quarter, backed by strength in global agriculture markets. It is expected to have gained from strong potash sales volumes on the back of high domestic and overseas demand and actions to boost potash production. Nutrien is also likely to have gained from acquisitions, cost efficiency and increased adoption of its digital platform.
Global phosphate markets remain robust on solid demand and pricing dynamics. Potash prices have strengthened on the back of robust global demand, aided by strong grower economics, higher crop prices, and low global inventory levels. Tight inventory along with healthy demand is also driving phosphate prices globally. Lower global supply availability stemming from reduced operating rates, strong demand and a spike in energy prices are likely to have boosted nitrogen prices in the quarter to be reported.
However, the company is likely to have faced headwinds from higher natural gas prices. Natural gas is a major component in nitrogen production costs. Nutrien is seeing a rise in the cost of goods sold per ton for nitrogen due to higher natural gas costs. Higher gas costs might have impacted the company’s nitrogen margins in the third quarter.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Nutrien this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Nutrien is -0.52%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $4.01. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Nutrien currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider, as our model shows these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
The consensus estimate for Albemarle’s third-quarter earnings has been revised 1% upward in the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALB’s earnings for the quarter is pegged at $6.84.
Koppers Holdings Inc. (KOP - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Nov 4, has an Earnings ESP of +2.28% and carries a Zacks Rank #2.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Koppers’ third-quarter earnings has been revised 2.6% upward in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for KOP’s earnings for the quarter is currently pegged at $1.17.
ATI Inc. (ATI - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Nov 2, has an Earnings ESP of +1.15%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ATI's earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 52 cents. ATI currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Image: Bigstock
Nutrien (NTR) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 2, after the closing bell.
The fertilizer maker delivered an earnings surprise of 5.8%, on average, over the trailing four quarters. It posted a negative earnings surprise of 0.9% in the last reported quarter. The company’s third-quarter performance will likely reflect the benefits of strong demand and higher prices for fertilizers.
The company’s shares have gained 15.1% in the past year compared with the industry’s 27.4% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
What do the Estimates Indicate?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nutrien’s third-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $9,016 million, calling for a rise of 49.7% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Phosphates segment is currently pegged at $629 million, calling for a year-over-year rise of 56.9%.
The consensus mark for net sales in the Potash segment is currently pegged at $3,207 million, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 170%.
The consensus mark for net sales in the Nitrogen segment is currently pegged at $2,191 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 125.2%.
A Few Factors to Watch
The company is likely to have benefited from solid demand and higher prices for fertilizers in the third quarter, backed by strength in global agriculture markets. It is expected to have gained from strong potash sales volumes on the back of high domestic and overseas demand and actions to boost potash production. Nutrien is also likely to have gained from acquisitions, cost efficiency and increased adoption of its digital platform.
Global phosphate markets remain robust on solid demand and pricing dynamics. Potash prices have strengthened on the back of robust global demand, aided by strong grower economics, higher crop prices, and low global inventory levels. Tight inventory along with healthy demand is also driving phosphate prices globally. Lower global supply availability stemming from reduced operating rates, strong demand and a spike in energy prices are likely to have boosted nitrogen prices in the quarter to be reported.
However, the company is likely to have faced headwinds from higher natural gas prices. Natural gas is a major component in nitrogen production costs. Nutrien is seeing a rise in the cost of goods sold per ton for nitrogen due to higher natural gas costs. Higher gas costs might have impacted the company’s nitrogen margins in the third quarter.
Nutrien Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise
Nutrien Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Nutrien Ltd. Quote
Zacks Model
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Nutrien this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Nutrien is -0.52%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $4.01. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Nutrien currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider, as our model shows these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
Albemarle Corporation (ALB - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Nov 2, has an Earnings ESP of +3.64% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for Albemarle’s third-quarter earnings has been revised 1% upward in the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALB’s earnings for the quarter is pegged at $6.84.
Koppers Holdings Inc. (KOP - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Nov 4, has an Earnings ESP of +2.28% and carries a Zacks Rank #2.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Koppers’ third-quarter earnings has been revised 2.6% upward in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for KOP’s earnings for the quarter is currently pegged at $1.17.
ATI Inc. (ATI - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Nov 2, has an Earnings ESP of +1.15%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ATI's earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 52 cents. ATI currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.